NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Biting or balmy? See NOAA's 2024 winter weather forecast for where you live

After the warmest winter on NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerrecord last year, the upcoming winter could be another mild one for much of the nation, federal forecasters announced Thursday.

Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that most of the USA's southern tier and the East Coast should see warmer-than-average temperatures this winter. In addition, most of the southern half of the USA – all the way from southern California to the Carolinas – should see less rain and snow than usual, which is potentially a concern for drought conditions.

“This winter, an emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, in a statement.

The center's forecast covers the months of December, January and February, which is known as meteorological winter.

Mild winter likely in the South, East

According to the forecast released Thursday, warmer-than-average temperatures are favored from the southern tier of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, Eastern Seaboard, New England and northern Alaska. These probabilities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas, NOAA said.

Gottschalck, at a news briefing Thursday, said that invasions of the dreaded polar vortex are less likely than usual this winter.

Overall, below-average temperatures are forecast this winter in the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains and across southern Alaska.

Where is a wet winter most likely?

Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and across the northern tier of the U.S, NOAA said. These probabilities are strongest in portions of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

Conversely, the greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions are in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico.

Weak La Nina expected

The long-promised La Nina climate pattern hasn't yet formed but is still expected to within the next month or so.

Specifically, the Climate Prediction Center said last week that there is a 60% chance that La Nina conditions will emerge by the end of November. And once it forms, it is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

Drought is a real concern

According to the forecast, drought is likely to develop or worsen across portions of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a statement. “And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.”

What about snowstorms and blizzards?

The forecast released Thursday predicts only where above- or below-normal temperatures and above- or below-normal precipitation are most likely.

This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall as rain, snow or ice, only that more or less is likely overall. Snow forecasts depend upon the strength and track of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, the center has said.

However, Gottschalck said that the storm track for nor'easters along the East Coast might favor more mild air for the big cities of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which could mean more rain than snow there. But he warned that snowstorms are still possible, depending on the specific weather conditions at the time.

Other patterns aren't figured in

Climate patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation – which can unleash intensely cold temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. – aren't included in this official forecast at this time because they can't be predicted more than one or two weeks in advance.

Other large-scale climate patterns in the atmosphere that can influence winter weather include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy-rain events along the West Coast. It also can contribute to other extreme events in the U.S., including arctic air outbreaks during the winter months across the central and eastern portions of the nation, the Climate Prediction Center says.

The forecast also does not factor in Siberian snow cover, which other forecasters use as the basis for their winter weather forecasts.

El Nino dominated last winter

A strong El Nino dominated the winter of 2023-24. Because of El Nino, the 2023–24 winter season ranked warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. Eight states across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast each saw their warmest winter on record, NOAA said.

(This story was updated to add a video.)